Sunday, 2 December 2012

SUNDAY (1PM): All Games - PART I



GAME CHART
2-9 (1-4 away)
jax
@
BUF
4-7 (2-2 home)
avg DEF ppg
28.0
22.1
avg OFF ppg
avg OFF ppg
17.1
29.0
avg DEF ppg
pass DEF rank
28th
25th
pass OFF rank
rush DEF rank
29th
7th
rush OFF rank
pass OFF rank
26th
18th
pass DEF rank
rush OFF rank
31st
31st
rush DEF rank
defensive formation
4-3
4-3
defensive formation
RB Jones-Drew (OUT)
CB Cox (OUT)
DE Lane (OUT)
key injuries
DE Anderson (OUT)
DE Kelsay (OUT)
FORECAST
Clodu with a chance of showers
STAT ALERT
-          JAX QB Henne was sacked 7 times and threw 1 INT in week 12 vs TEN
-          JAX offence ranked last in the NFL
ANALYST INSIGHT
Even if JAX QB Henne has improved the offense, JAX still have a terrible defense, plus the Bills have a big special teams edge – M.D. SMITH
FINAL PREDICTION
BUF
SU
vs SPR
JAX (+5.5)
With their starting RB & QB out of the lineup, JAX has not only competed at a higher level, they’ve been winning ball games. Backup QB Chad Henne has provided stability for the Jaguars offence after taking over for injured second-year QB Blaine Gabbert two weeks ago and seems intent on keeping the position if/when Gabbert is healthy enough to return to action. So long as rising star wideouts Shorts & Blackmon can keep making plays in the backfield, there is no reason to believe the floundering Buffalo Bills, homefield advantage or not, can beat up on the Jags this Sunday afternoon at Ralph Wilson Stadium to the tune of a near TD spread. In fact, as diametrically opposite as it may sound to just a few weeks prior, JAX looks like a notably better ball club than BUF.




GAME CHART
6-5 (1-5 away)
sea
@
CHI
8-3 (5-1 home)
avg DEF ppg
16.8
25.2
avg OFF ppg
avg OFF ppg
19.9
15.9
avg DEF ppg
pass DEF rank
3rd
32nd
pass OFF rank
rush DEF rank
12th
10th
rush OFF rank
pass OFF rank
31st
6th
pass DEF rank
rush OFF rank
8th
8th
rush DEF rank
defensive formation
4-3
4-3
defensive formation
none
key injuries
WR Hester (OUT)
WR Jeffery (DOUB)
G Spencer (OUT)
FORECAST
Cloudy
STAT ALERT
-          SEAs largest road loss of the season is a TD; averaging 5-pt differential in road losses this season
-          CHI defence has forced 2+ turnovers in 10 of their last 11 games
ANALYST INSIGHT
A field goal should decide this one – R. THE HANDLE

The biggest issue the Seahawks face will be rookie QB Russell Wilson against the Bears' vaunted defense, which I expect to force two or more turnovers – J. REED

CHI QB Jay Cutler's guts will help his offense grind out enough points against a stingy Seahawks defense – V. IYER

CHI QB Jay Cutler knows how to avoid the pressure and deliver the ball, and the Seahawks still haven’t learned how to win on the road – V. IYER
FINAL PREDICTION
CHI
SU
vs SPR
SEA (+4.5)
SEA has held their own while traveling this season, averaging losses by five points per contest and having yet to be defeated by more than a TD while on the road. The Bears offence is entirely driven by QB Cutler getting the ball to his lone backfield target, WR Brandon Marshall, and exploiting that matchup repeatedly throughout a game. With some of the strongest (and soon to be suspended) CBs in the league sure to be draping Marshall all afternoon this Sunday at Soldier Field, expect the Bears to more than a little struggle at accruing points. That said, CHIs defence is averaging over 2+ turnovers per contest this season which should make for the difference here.




GAME CHART
6-5 (1-4 away)
min
@
GB
7-4 (4-1 home)
avg DEF ppg
22.6
24.8
avg OFF ppg
avg OFF ppg
22.5
22.3
avg DEF ppg
pass DEF rank
14th
14th
pass OFF rank
rush DEF rank
15th
23rd
rush OFF rank
pass OFF rank
30th
22nd
pass DEF rank
rush OFF rank
3rd
11th
rush DEF rank
defensive formation
4-3
3-4
defensive formation
WR Harvin (DOUB)
key injuries
RB White (OUT)
LB Matthews (OUT)
TE Quarless (OUT)
S Woodson (OUT)
DE Wilson (OUT)
CB Shields (OUT)
LB Manning (DOUB)
FORECAST
Cloudy
STAT ALERT
-          MIN QB Ponder November stats: 3 TD, 2 INT, 71.8 QB rating
ANALYST INSIGHT
A makeshift offensive line has GB QB Aaron Rodgers chomping on turf too often and Minnesota has the personnel to continue the onslaught. Look for lots of MIN RB Adrian Peterson and a controlled tempo, keeping it close – R. THE HANDLE
FINAL PREDICTION
GB
SU
vs SPR
MIN (+9.0)
It’s hard to comprehend why oddmakers have set a near TD + FGM spread in this contest considering the growing number of significant injuries GBay currently sports and the level of football aptitude their visiting division foe possesses. True, Vikes QB Christian Ponder (with WR Harvin out of the lineup) has lost the lustre he had accrued over the course of early part of the season. That said, MIN still remains above the .500 mark 13 weeks into the season and is far from a league-wide pushover. GB QB Rodgers’ O-Line has allowed for the second most sacks in the NFL to date and, with MIN DE Allen sure to be psyched at the opportunity to layout an elite opposition QB, expect the Vikings to hammer back at the Pack this Sunday at Lambeau Field.


GAME CHART
7-4 (2-3 away)
ind
@
DET
4-7 (2-3 home)
avg DEF ppg
24.8
24.3
avg OFF ppg
avg OFF ppg
20.9
25.5
avg DEF ppg
pass DEF rank
19th
1st
pass OFF rank
rush DEF rank
20th
24th
rush OFF rank
pass OFF rank
7th
12th
pass DEF rank
rush OFF rank
17th
21st
rush DEF rank
defensive formation
3-4
4-3
defensive formation
S Zbikowski (OUT)
key injuries
none
FORECAST
N/A
STAT ALERT
-          IND defence has allowed 20-pts or less in 4 of their last 5 outings
-          IND QB Luck’s QB rating drops 20-pts when outside Lucas Oil Stadium; has a 65.4 passer rating, 4 TD, 10 INT in road games this season
ANALYST INSIGHT
With 10 days rest and the possibility of getting swept in a three-game home stand, I’m confident Detroit can get up off the canvas with a solid showing here – R. THE HANDLE

DET QB Matthew Stafford will find WR Calvin Johnson for big plays often in this contest and the Lions will keep their minuscule playoff hopes alive, at least for one more game – J. REED

DET QB Matthew Stafford will pick apart the Colts' secondary at home – V. IYER

DET WR Calvin Johnson will have a huge day against a weak secondary – M.D. SMITH

DET has got the horses to hold off a Colts team that has yet to learn how to win away from Indy consistently – M. FLORIO

The Lions’ season is essentially over while the Colts can seriously exploit their defence – D. BILICKI
FINAL PREDICTION
DET
SU
vs SPR
IND (+6.0)
It’s not so much that Lions own a better offence, more experienced parts or the fact they hold home field advantage in this contest that will safeguard them a win this Sunday. The difference maker in this matchup will be the play of IND rookie QB Andrew Luck. Luck has played above and beyond what should expected of a number one draft pick, having transformed his club from a two-win team a season prior to a squad that currently sits three games above the .500 mark entering week 13 of the 2012-13 NFL season. As numbers go, road contests have been particularly daunting for Luck this season, the youngster QB having already thrown 10 INTs in visitor stadiums to date. That being said, the antsy DET secondary has been on the decline for a few weeks now and, mired in the lower end of the league with respect to defensive INTs, is likely to gamble a little too heavy on wideout routes this afternoon lending to a backdoor Colts cover.








PROPS CHART-PLAYERS



Pro*Line #
avg home
avg road
prediction
QB
prediction
avg road
avg home
Pro*Line #

Luck
23.5
23.2
23.2
UNDER

OVER
25.3
28.8
25.5
Stafford

Pro*Line #
avg home
avg road
prediction
RB
prediction
avg road
avg home
Pro*Line #

N/A






69.2
47.0

Leshoure

Pro*Line #
avg home
avg road
prediction
WR
prediction
avg road
avg home
Pro*Line #

Wayne
6.5
8.0
7.2
OVER


7.6
5.4
6.5
Johnson























PROPS CHART-FIELD


season total
avg game
prediction
SACKS
(PRO*LINE #)
Prediction
avg game
season total
26
2.4
OVER
4.5
OVER
2.3
25
season total
avg game
prediction
FUMBLES
(PRO*LINE #)
prediction
avg game
season total
8
0.7
OVER
1.5
OVER
0.8
9
season total
40+
avg game
40+
prediction
LONG PASS
(PRO*LINE #)
prediction
avg game
40+
season total
40+
5
0.5

49.5

0.7
8
season total
20+
avg game
20+
prediction
LONG RUSH
(PRO*LINE #)
prediction
avg game
20+
season total
20+
3
0.3
UNDER
22.5
UNDER
0.2
2
season total
PTR yds
avg yds PTR

prediction
LONG PTR
(PRO*LINE #)
prediction
avg yds PTR

season total
PTR yds
285
13.6
OVER
17.5
OVER
12.0
240
season total
40-49+
season total
50+
prediction
LONG FGM
(PRO*LINE #)
prediction
season total
50+
season total
40-49+
7-8
3-6
OVER
45.5
OVER
1-1
12-15
avg quarter
avg half
prediction
SCORING
(PRO*LINE #)
prediction
avg half
avg quarter
5.3
10.5

1ST-25.5/2ND-25.5

12.2
6.1

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